The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released its latest Western Australia Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO), showing that domestic gas supply is expected to exceed consumption through to 2027.
The 2024 Western Australia GSOO forecasts the adequacy of gas supplies and identifies investment opportunities from now to 2034, drawing on data from industry participants and public sources.
AEMO Interim Executive General Manager Western Australia, Nicola Falcon, said that gas supply is expected to increase from existing facilities and new supply is being brought online from advanced projects.
“We’re forecasting gas supply to exceed demand until 2027, due to increased supply alongside a temporary reduction in mining and industrial consumption,” Ms Falcon said.
“From 2028, the outlook tightens, with a potential supply gap of 162TJ per day, before returning to surplus again in 2029.
“The period from 2028 is subject to the most uncertainty. A supply gap in the domestic gas market could materialise if projects are unable to be accelerated to match consumption, or consumption is greater than forecast,” Ms Falcon said.
The report assumes that suspended mining and refinery projects will resume full operations in 2028, along with growth from existing operations. Additionally, the Perdaman Karratha Urea project is expected to reach full capacity by 2028.
From 2030 onwards, AEMO highlights that new gas supply developments will be required to support domestic gas use as reserves in existing gas fields decline.
Overall, domestic gas consumption is forecast to grow on average 1.8 per cent annually from 1119TJ/day in 2024 to 1336TJ/day in 2034 – peaking at 1378TJ/day in 2031. Meanwhile, supply is forecast to rise on average 4.3 per cent annually over the first half of the outlook period – adding 269TJ/day between 2024 and 2029, and then decline 4.1 per cent annually from 2030 to 2034 as existing gas fields deplete.
“At this stage, recent discoveries are currently too speculative to include in the potential supply forecasts,” Ms Falcon said.
“In the medium-to-longer term, new supply sources could come online from existing facilities and these recent discoveries. Additionally, forecast consumption may decrease due to higher-than-expected industrial decarbonisation, while faster development of new renewable and storage projects could reduce gas demand in Western Australia’s main electricity grid, the SWIS (South West Interconnected System),” she said.
AEMO said gas will remain essential as the SWIS decarbonises, with consumption for gas powered electricity generation forecast to become ‘peakier’ and more seasonal.
Increased variable renewable energy supported by batteries and gas is forecast to offset retirements of coal fired generation.
AEMO expects gas to continue to be used by Western Australian households, businesses and industry, and to support the reliability and security of the electricity sector through the transition to a net zero emissions future.
“Over time, as more renewable generation is connected and electrification continues, gas powered generation is expected to play a more seasonal role, with higher use during periods of low wind and sunshine and high demand in winter, or when supporting peak demand in summer,” Ms Falcon said.
“In future, gas storage is likely to be used more frequently and we will need more flexibility in daily domestic gas supply to match this increasingly seasonal and peaky gas demand,” she added.
Read the full Western Australia GSOO here.
