The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released an impact summary on Victorian gas demand patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic.
AEMO’s Operational Forecasting team have been working to isolate COVID-19 impacts from the normal variation in demand patterns, and gathering insights and modelling from across Victoria on gas demands impacts in early May.
During their analysis the team noted that the hourly demand profile for Victoria has in fact changed. This includes a later and longer morning peak with demand remaining high through until the late morning period.
There has been an increase of up to five per cent in peak day demand in addition to increased sensitivity to weather events (residential load).
It’s expected that residential demand will likely see a two per cent increase during mild weather conditions but up to a seven per cent increase on the very cold, peak demand days.
The historic hourly demand profile for commercial and industrial businesses remains unchanged, however, with a five percent reduction overall and variations by customer.
Case Study – 1 May 2020. Very cold – equivalent to 1-in-20 April peak day, demand held up following the morning peak, warmer weather during the afternoon
With Australia beginning to remove some COVID-19 restrictions, on a state by state basis, demand is expected to increase, as has been demonstrated by countries overseas who are ahead of us on the pandemic response timeline.
