COP30 finished up in Brazil last week, bringing more than 56,000 delegates to Belém – described as the “gateway” to the Amazon River.
So what came from the event?
It was an occasion defined, as you would expect, by its collaboration, with 194 countries signing agreements at COP30.
While Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac) said “rumours of the demise of tackling climate action have been greatly exaggerated”, with the US the only country to have largely abandoned its commitment to emissions reduction, the market analyst also said “material progress remained elusive” at COP30.
“The COP’s continuing inability to commit to reducing fossil fuels summed it all up and ensures progress on emissions reduction will proceed at a glacial pace,” WoodMac said.
Some of the key takeaways from the event include:
Finance troubles
Despite a $US300 billion annual climate finance target set at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, climate finance commitments “remain stuck” at annual figure of $US100 billion.
“COP30’s ‘Baku to Belém roadmap’ calls for scaling up to $US1.3 trillion yearly through private capital and innovative financing,” WoodMac said. “A Wood Mackenzie-contributed report reveals this requires a fourfold increase in equity by 2035.”
Trade focus
According to WoodMac, 25 per cent of global emissions come from internationally traded products and materials, making COP30 a heated forum for trade discussions.
While the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is leading the way by placing a price on imported emissions, many international efforts continue to downplay this priority.
“Some countries – including China, India and Japan – have pushed back on the EU’s CBAM initiative, calling it ‘unilateral and arbitrary’,” WoodMac said.
“The final COP30 agreement avoided concrete actions against unilateral trade barriers. This suggests that CBAM remains a point of international friction and contention, although its implementation is proceeding within the EU.”
Methane progress
While a methane summit was held by Brazil, the UK and China, launching a series of initiatives to address methane and other non-CO2 greenhouse gases, WoodMac said it’s still an uphill climb.
“UNEP’s (United Nations Environment Programme) report shows very few of the 159 Global Methane Pledge signatories have progressed towards the 30 per cent reduction target by 2030,” WoodMac said. “That meant that COP30 lacked a standout achievement on methane emissions.”
Other takeaways
While Australia was unable to secure COP31 for Adelaide, it was announced the country would be President of Negotiations at next year’s event, to be held in Antalya in Türkiye. This means Australia will have exclusive authority to drive global climate negotations.
The Belem Declaration to Transition from Fossil Fuels saw 24 signatories including Australia, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Ireland, Mexico, Nepal, the Netherlands, Spain, Vanuatu and Tuvalu.
This declaration sets out a “minimum level of ambition” to guide an equitable transition plan at an international level.
“From the heart of the Amazon, Indigenous peoples, Afro descendant communities, campesino organisations, academia, and social movements delivered a message that we cannot ignore,” Colombia Minister of Environment and Sustainable Development Irene Vélez Torres said.
“We are not asking for an empty document. We are not asking for an empty announcement. We must leave this COP with a global roadmap that guides us, not symbolically, but concretely, our collective efforts to phase out fossil fuels.”
Assessing overall emissions progress, WoodMac said there was plenty of work to do.
“A decade after Paris, global emissions haven’t peaked,” the analyst said. “Wood Mackenzie’s base case projects a 2.6°C warming pathway, with no major economy on track for 2030 targets. Announced goals for 2035 lack the ambition required to keep warming below 2°C.
“China is decarbonising rapidly but has yet to begin any decline in absolute emissions. Based on the NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) submitted, global emissions in 2035 are projected to be around 12 per cent below 2019 levels, and insufficient to reach well below 2°C trajectory.”
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