The Australian Energy Market Operator’s (AEMO) Quarterly Energy Dynamics report for Q4 2024 has revealed a surge in renewable energy contributions and record-breaking demand levels in the National Electricity Market (NEM).
Driven by higher temperatures and a growing electrification shift from gas to electricity, the NEM experienced a new December quarter maximum demand record of 33,716MW and an average quarterly total demand record of 23,737MW, a 2.4 per cent year-on-year increase.
At the same time, rooftop solar and grid-scale solar reached new output records, increasing by 18 per cent and nine per cent, respectively. This surge led to minimum demand records across the NEM and in Queensland, New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania.
AEMO Executive General Manager – Reform Delivery, Violette Mouchaileh, said, “The rise in rooftop solar output, coupled with record low coal-generation availability, resulted in coal-fired generation contributing less than 50 per cent of the NEM’s total generation for the first time.
“Renewable energy supplied a record 46 per cent of the market’s electricity, peaking at 75.6 per cent for a period on 6 November 2024, driving emissions to record low levels,” she said.
Wholesale electricity prices averaged $88/MWh in Q4 2024, representing an 83 per cent increase compared to a very mild Q4 2023, but 26 per cent lower than the previous quarter average of $119/MWh.
New South Wales and Queensland experienced record Q4 wholesale prices of $143/MWh and $127/MWh, respectively, due to high demand, coal generation unavailability, and transmission constraints limiting northern flow of lower-cost energy.
Victoria recorded the lowest average price at $45/MWh, followed by South Australia at $52/MWh and Tasmania at $74/MWh.
“Recent operating conditions highlight the role new transmission projects underway – such as VNI West, Project EnergyConnect and HumeLink – will play in sharing the lowest-cost energy throughout the NEM,” Ms Mouchaileh said.
The quarter also saw record-high instances of negative prices in the NEM, with negative price events occurring 23.1 per cent of the time, an increase from the previous high of 19.9 per cent recorded in Q4 2023.
Regional records for negative price frequencies were also set in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, at 13.3 per cent, 34.3 per cent, and 38 per cent, respectively.
In Western Australia, coal generation dropped by 19.5 per cent due to reduced coal plant availability. This shortfall was offset by increases in rooftop solar (20.3 per cent), gas (14.4 per cent), and battery contributions (1400 per cent). Average energy prices remained relatively unchanged from the previous quarter at $79.93/MWh.
“Increased battery storage in Western Australia helped the state hit a new quarterly average renewable contribution record of 46.4 per cent and a renewable energy peak of 85.1 per cent,” Ms Mouchaileh said.
In Western Australia’s domestic gas market, production dipped one per cent to 104.3PJ and consumption reduced 2.6 per cent to 93.9PJ compared to Q4 2023.
Meanwhile, east coast wholesale gas prices rose to $13.60/GJ, driven by record Queensland liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and increased gas-fired electricity generation.
Increases in Victorian production, with the Otway Gas Plant continuing to see an increase in supply in Q4 (+6.1PJ) and Longford Q4 gas production increasing for the first time since Q4 2022 (+3.7PJ), were offset by reduced supply from projects associated with Queensland LNG exports.
