EnergyQuest has published the latest Australian LNG Monthly, revealing that Australia exported 77.2Mt of LNG in the past year to 30 June 2021 and that China has now overtaken Japan as Australia’s top export destination.
The monthly update forecasts FY2022 LNG exports of 80Mt and a $17 billion increase in LNG export revenue, whilst average oil prices in FY2021 were similar to FY2020, with spot LNG prices averaging 57 per cent higher than the year before.
East coast spot prices have spiked in July, due to cold weather, high international prices, outages at Longford and coal-fired power generation rather than LNG exports.
Across Australia, Western Australian LNG production was down by 5 per cent in FY2020 to 45.1Mt, the Northern Territory was down by 6 per cent to 8.8Mt, the East Coast had a record production of 23.3Mt, up 4 per cent from FY2020 and net gas flows from Queensland to other states were 3.5PJ in June.
Queensland short-term domestic gas prices in June were much higher averaging $10.31/GJ ($7.32/GJ in May) at Wallumbilla and $10.80 /GJ ($7.56/GJ) in Brisbane, compared to those in May.
Southern short-term domestic gas prices in June were also much higher compared to those in May, averaging $11.06/GJ ($7.51/GJ) in Sydney, $11.41/GJ ($7.48/GJ) in Adelaide and $9.36/GJ ($6.33/GJ) in Victoria.
Gas had a 15 per cent share in Queensland and 46 per cent in South Australia.
Gas generation was up by 303GWh and gas-fired generation increased in Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria compared to May and increased its overall share of the market to 10 per cent.
Further Australian LNG Monthly highlights:
- Australian LNG projects shipped 5.85Mt (85 cargoes) in June, slightly higher than the 5.82Mt (84 cargoes) in May
- The average Wallumbilla price in FY2021 was $6.10/GJ, steady on $6.02/GJ in FY2020, Notwithstanding the increase in the JKM and increased Gladstone exports
- JKM spot LNG futures steadily increased during June from US $10.98/MMBtu on 1 June (for July deliveries) to a high for the month of US $13.39/MMBtu on 30 June (for August deliveries)
- West Coast shipments increased to 4.0Mt in June (3.8Mt in May). East coast shipments decreased to 1.8Mt
- Queensland exported gas to the other states in June, with flows in a westerly direction for the entire month
- East coast electricity demand continues to grow, up by 2.9 per cent in June compared with a year earlier. Power generation in June from coal was a record low for this time, with generation down by 681GWh
- Coal’s share of NEM generation was only 63 per cent, down from 68 per cent a year earlier, with lower generation in Queensland and Victoria following issues at Callide and Yallourn
Information regarding the EnergyQuest Australian LNG Monthly is available by clicking here.
