The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has released the first stage of its Draft 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios report, seeking feedback from interested industry stakeholders.
Every two years, AEMO is required by the National Electricity Rules to consult and produce the IASR, which includes future energy scenarios that inform AEMO’s forecasting and planning analysis and publications, such as the Integrated System Plan (ISP).
AEMO Executive General Manager System Design, Merryn York, said the scenarios in the Draft 2025 IASR are consistent with recent versions, representing plausible future worlds within which the energy transition occurs.
“Scenarios in the Draft 2025 IASR maintain general consistency with the 2023 scenarios, applied in the 2024 ISP, with each scenario evaluating the power system needs to achieve government policy and reflecting broader uncertainties affecting the energy transition,” Ms York said.
“This consistency strikes the right balance to explore development opportunities across the scenarios, while also exploring uncertainties through sensitivity analysis,” she said.
The Step Change scenario continues to provide central conditions to evaluate power system needs to achieve Australia’s net zero transition, while the Progressive Change and Green Energy scenarios provide faster and slower paces of change and associated changes to the power system needs.
AEMO is seeking stakeholder feedback on two variants to the Green Energy scenario: Green Energy Exports and Green Energy Industries, the latter having reduced focus on export opportunities but both representing a high growth, rapid transition.
The scenarios consider commitments by Australia’s governments that meet the criteria under the National Electricity Rules, including renewable generation goals and emissions-reductions targets, as captured in the Australian Energy Market Commission’s targets statement for greenhouse gas emissions.
“We have made adjustments to the scenario parameters based on stakeholder feedback on areas such as green energy developments and the growing role for data centres, as outlined in the 2025 IASR Scenarios consultation,” Ms York said.
“We are also seeking further input regarding the parameters of the most ambitious scenario for planning purposes, particularly in relation to the inclusion of hydrogen for export versus use in green industries,” she said.
For the Draft 2025 IASR, AEMO is also expanding its consideration of additional inputs and assumptions, including the need to better integrate gas into the ISP, enhanced demand forecasting and opportunities for consumer energy resources.
This follows the Energy and Climate Change Ministerial Council (ECMC) response in April 2024 to a review examining the optimal function and form of the ISP.
Considering this extended remit, the release of this Draft 2025 IASR will be in two stages:
- Stage 1 release (this publication) on 11 December 2024, provides interested stakeholders with an opportunity to submit feedback in written submissions (submissions sought by 11 February 2025).
- Stage 2 for release in February 2025, will include emissions reduction parameters as well as expanded inputs needed to consider new elements of the ISP’s scope. A consultation window for stakeholder feedback will follow publication.
AEMO will host a webinar on Friday, 23 January 2025 to discuss the report and answer stakeholder questions.
